Every year, I watch for the shift that tends to happen as we move into the fourth quarter on the Big Island. What some buyers and sellers may not realize is that our winter months have historically been one of our busiest times of year for both tourism and real estate.
As summer winds down, hurricane season comes to an end, and we move past the election, the island starts to feel different. Snowbirds and winter visitors begin arriving, the holidays are approaching, and buyers who may have spent months watching the market often start getting more serious.
This year, I’m starting to see that shift again, and I’m happy to share that showings, purchase contracts, and listings have picked up considerably. More buyers are out looking at homes and condos, and there is definitely more activity than we were seeing a few months ago.
But there’s an important distinction: more showings do not necessarily mean more offers.
Buyers are looking, but they are still cautious. They’re comparing properties, watching prices, taking their time before making an offer, and in some cases negotiating aggressively when they do.
So, has the Big Island real estate market picked up? I would say yes, but what that means depends heavily on which part of the market you’re looking at.
1. Buyer Activity Has Picked Up in the Fourth Quarter
Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen a real change in showing activity. After a very quiet summer, buyers are getting back out and looking at properties again. Some of my listings that had gone stretches with very little activity are now seeing multiple showings, which is a welcome shift as we move further into the fourth quarter.
But more showings haven’t necessarily meant more offers.
Buyers are taking their time. I’m seeing more second and even third showings before a decision is made. Buyers are comparing their options, watching price reductions, and in some cases waiting to see what else comes on the market before they make an offer.
And even when we do get into escrow, we’re not always making it to closing. I’ve seen buyers walk away after inspections, while other homes have fallen apart because a buyer couldn’t sell their current home. Getting an accepted offer is certainly a good step, but in this market, there can still be a lot that happens between acceptance and closing.
So yes, the buyers are coming back. They’re just not coming back with the urgency we saw a few years ago.
2. Single-Family Home Prices Have Risen Despite a Slower Market
One of the more surprising things I’ve watched this year is single-family home prices continue to rise, even though it certainly hasn’t felt like a strong seller’s market.
Homes are taking longer to sell. We’ve seen plenty of price reductions, buyers negotiating harder, and offers coming in well below asking price. Yet when we look at the homes that have actually closed, prices have continued to move up in many areas of the Island specifically in Waikoloa and Kona areas.
That doesn’t mean every home is worth more simply because the overall numbers are higher.
I see this play out constantly when looking at pricing with sellers. Buyers are comparing your home to what has recently sold, but they’re also comparing it to everything else they can buy today. If the house down the street offers a similar floor plan, condition, and location for $100,000 less, buyers notice. And right now, they have enough choices that they don’t necessarily need to compromise.
So while rising home prices sound like good news for sellers, your competition today may tell you more about where your home should be priced than the market headline does.
3. Condos Are Telling a Different Story
The condo market is behaving differently. We have more condo inventory, buyers have more choices, and prices have softened in most parts of the real estate market.
When a buyer can choose between several similar condos, they start comparing everything: price, condition, view, location within the complex, HOA fees, rental potential, upgrades and even how well the property presents.
That puts more pressure on sellers. This is why I don’t think it’s particularly useful to say, “The Big Island market is up” or “The market is down.”
Which market? A single-family home in Waikoloa Village can be experiencing something completely different from a vacation-rental condo at Waikoloa Beach Resort or a condo in Kona.
Your specific segment of the market matters.
4. More Buyers Looking Won’t Fix an Overpriced Home
I’m seeing a significant number of properties priced above the point where buyers are willing to engage.
Sometimes a seller has a specific number they need or want to get for their home. I understand that. Maybe it’s based on what they paid, improvements they’ve made, what they need for their next purchase or simply what they believe the home should be worth. But the market doesn’t know that number.
And ultimately, neither the seller nor the listing agent determines what a property will sell for. The buyer does. More specifically, the market tells us what a property is worth through what qualified buyers are actually willing to pay for it.
Today’s buyers are paying attention. They know when a property has been sitting on the market. They see price reductions. They compare it to recent sales and competing listings.
And if they believe a property is overpriced, many aren’t writing a low offer. They’re simply moving on.
So, Has the Market Picked Up?
From what I’m seeing on the ground, yes. The fourth quarter has brought a noticeable increase in showing activity, and that is a positive change from what we were experiencing earlier in the year.
But I wouldn’t confuse more activity with a return to a market where sellers can name their price. Single-family homes and condos are behaving differently. Buyers are still cautious. Offers can take time. And pricing continues to be one of the biggest factors determining which properties get attention and which ones sit.
For sellers, there is opportunity in a more active market. The key is being positioned correctly when those buyers walk through the door. Because more buyers looking at your home is good.
Being priced and prepared well enough that one of them wants to buy it is what actually matters.
